Cognitive Biases

During this cur­rent ‘not-plebicite’ sea­son I have been asked sev­er­al times on var­i­ous social media plat­forms as to what my posi­tion on var­i­ous aspects of the debate are. But, apart from one more sleep deprived enquiry about jurispru­dence, I have decid­ed that I won’t be post­ing on the top­ic. More…

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The OODA loop and Cognitive Biases

This morn­ing I gave a brief talk on sev­er­al of the cog­ni­tive bias­es that have fea­tured on here over the last few months, and their often stormy rela­tion­ship with our rapid deci­sion making/heuristic process­es. During that talk I men­tioned the OODA (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) loop briefly, and a cou­ple of peo­ple asked ques­tions…

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Why ‘We Are All Confident Idiots’ — The Dunning-Kruger Effect

igno­rance more fre­quent­ly begets con­fi­dence than does knowl­edge’ — Darwin Why is it that a lit­tle bit of knowl­edge appears to super-inflate peo­ples esti­ma­tion of their abil­i­ties? Whereas a sig­nif­i­cant amount of knowl­edge in a field makes one painful­ly aware of their own lim­i­ta­tions. Take for exam­ple a novice car…

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Is the World Going to Hell in a Hand Basket? — the Negativity Bias

Brief con­tact with a cock­roach will usu­al­ly ren­der a deli­cious meal ined­i­ble. [But] the inverse phenome-non—rendering a pile of cock­roach­es on a plat­ter edi­ble by con­tact with one’s favorite food—is unheard of. 1 Why does our media con­stant­ly report on the neg­a­tive aspects of our soci­ety, with only a short…

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